So wow...online poker...yeah. I'm still in a bit of a state of shock about the FBI arresting the owners of Full Tilt and Poker Stars and virtually shutting down online poker to the US market. There are tons of articles out there on Pocket Fives, Poker News and other sites about the details so I'm not going to go into all of that.
What I'm going to do is give my thoughts about the potential landscape change and how I am going to personally adjust to everything.
Other US friendly sites
As of today, the Merge Poker network (Carbon Poker, Lock Poker, Hero Poker, etc.), Bodog and Cake Poker still serve the US market. How they process deposits and cashouts is unknown to me, but I imagine they are employing similar means as the big players. I WANT to believe that these sites somehow found a legal loophole for financial transactions and will continue to serve the US market. If they do I will move my money (even though their interfaces suck). The tough thing right now though is that there is A LOT of money tied up in accounts on PokerStars and FullTilt and it may be some time before that money can be moved to new sites. I am personally going to monitor the news for a few weeks and then make a decision.
Macro-economic Ramifications
Poker shows such as the Big Game, Poker After Dark and High Stakes poker will be affected and may even go away since the two major companies spending advertising dollars were Full Tilt and PokerStars. This could also lead to less new players entering the poker economy in the short-run and the overall skill edge decreasing.
Limbo & Resurgence
While there could be a long limbo period (1-2 years) for online poker in the US, 0ne possible positive outcome of all of this is that once things shake out and poker finally gets regulated that there will be a major influx of new players. New companies in the market such as Harrahs and MGM could pump a bunch of new advertising dollars and leverage their existing casinos to promote their online poker brands. This will bring in more casual players and those who stayed away from online poker because of barriers and fears about depositing. In the past, you had to really want to play online poker to put money on, which means people were more serious about wanting to play. While there were still definitely a lot of soft players, I think things will soften up even more.
In addition, more of the poker economy's advertising dollars will now be re-directed to foreign markets which will bring in more new players from other countries (and we all know how bad they play). In fact, if the limbo is this long it may also cause a large group of younger online pros to get "real jobs" and not be so saturated in the online poker world. These dynamics could cause the overall quality of poker play to go down, providing a more overall edge for skilled players.
Live Poker
I think live poker will now see a surge. People still want to play and if online is no longer an option, the traffic at home games, VFW games and local casinos will increase.
New Goals-New Focus
A lot of my poker goals were based on volume. IF the other US friendly sites do not become an option I will have to re-adjust my goals and where I focus my energy a bit. Tournament variance in 1,000 man fields means you have to put in a lot of volume for your skill edge to profit. If I will be focusing my attention on live games, then my volume goals will be different and I will need to place more emphasis on both cash games and Omaha (and other games).
I will need to work out a regular schedule of live tournaments and cash games and adjust my volume goals down accordingly since I can't multi-table. I will also need to re-assess my bankroll management needs. While there are regular live tournaments, most of them are super high "charity rake", so cash games will be in the mix more. The average buy-ins will be much higher now though since there are no live $20 tournaments. But, the field sizes will be much less and I will have a much greater edge on the overall field, so there should be less variance. I'm not exactly sure what this will mean yet but I will set my goals accordingly and work to move up in live stakes comfortably. I want to be comfortable bankroll wise to take at least 3-4 poker trips a year playing the $300 and $500 circuit events and eventually the main events.
How I'm going to study my game and improve now
The great thing about online poker is that you can get experience with a high repetition of similar situations and speed up the learning curve. You also have the ability to review hand histories after the fact and calculate the EV of each situation. This enables you to continuously study, learn and improve your game. If the other sites don't pan out and I end up focusing on live poker, I will need to devise a system for regularly improving my game. This may be taking notes on hand situations while I play for later review, more communication with poker friends about hands, etc. Obviously tools like Hold'em Manager become obsolete, but I still have a plethora of past hands to review. Hopefully, training sites like Cardrunners and PokerXFactor stay in business (and stay in English), so those can still be ways to stay in the mindset of thinking through hands. Obviously live betting patterns can sometimes vary but it's the regular conditioning of your thought process that is important.
Here are a list of things I will do to keep improving:
- Regular blog posts about hand situations and inflections in the game
- Monthly play recap like I've been doing
- Will still keep up with my play stats and volume
- Live hand discussions with poker friends who I respect
- More 2+2 forum reading/posting (since I will have less hands of my own than normal to review, this will increase my repetition of thinking through a hand)
- Possibly keep notes on regular live players, their tendencies and how to exploit them
- From a skill standpoint, I am going to really focus on playing full betting lines and having a plan for each hand, as well as assigning hand ranges. Online this was becoming very automatic and I will need to make sure I translate this to live play.
- I also plan on stepping up my Omaha & Omaha Hi/Lo game since a lot of cash games are mixed. I plan on making an investment in some video training with those games in order to get myself to a level where I am confident in all situations.
Bringing new players into the poker economy
There are definitely major soft spots in the live, local poker scene but over time if no new players are introduced then the regulars keep swapping money back and forth. I plan on keeping and widening my edge and finding more edges to exploit (this could be as simple as finding ways of staying alert when everyone else is tired and making mistakes or knowing when to stop playing)
But I firmly believe there needs to be a way to keep introducing new players into the local live poker economy. Maybe it's through bonuses for bringing a friend, smaller buy-in tournaments, etc. Not exactly sure what the strategy is yet but I feel some responsibility to make it happen.
So what can I do to keep poker going strong?
- Host regular live tournaments
- Attend regular events to keep numbers up
- Host satellite events and set up the Atlanta Poker fund to send players to live circuit events
- Support the organizers of local games by bringing them new players
- Recruit new players to the game
- Regular support of the Poker Players Alliance
Well those are my thoughts for now. We'll see how the next couple of weeks go for the other US sites and hopefully the government will move faster to regulate online poker.
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