Why I Play Poker - Revisited

I was reading back through some old blog posts from 5 years ago and realized...wait!...that was 5 years ago. Time has really flown by and according to those posts I've been playing almost 7 years now. That is really crazy to think about.

Back then I had an "a ha moment" and decided that the reason I play was for competitiveness and for the fun of playing. I talked about how money was a nice by product but really it was a means of keeping score. I still do feel this way for the most part, but I have been putting a lot more pressure on myself lately to use the money I win playing poker to help pay off debt that has built up as a result of now being a business owner.

Unfortunately over the last few months I haven't turned a profit and while I've mostly kept an even keel attitude about variance, it started to get to me the other day. I haven't had to deposit money since I started playing with only a few site transfers to replenish, the funds in my online accounts are basically at zero. NOW, let me also say that this is me being a tad melodramatic because I have a good bit of my bankroll in cash or in a savings account AND had to buy-in with my own funds for some backed games and I'm owed money. But that isn't a ton and I think the psychological affects of not being able to buy into anything right now started pissing me off.

It's been about 4 months since my roll took a big nose dive due to life bills and a big downswing and while I thought my bruised ego was over it, I think I assumed I would have hit a decent score by now to move the line graph upward. Unfortunately I've only had a few minor ups and downs of my own roll and the makeup of my backing deal continues to grow.

I can't tell if I'm being impatient, if my sample size for expecting some movement is too small, if I'm still in some overall downswing, or maybe certain holes in my game are preventing me from achieving success. I'm really in a state of confusion and at a loss as to what to do. I'm hoping that blogging about it will provide some clarity.

As far as my game goes, I truly feel that I'm making big improvements. I mean yeah, I've had a couple of brain farts that cost me a couple of deep runs, but overall I think I'm playing good. I don't think that my feeling this way is some sort of ego protection mechanism where I can't admit that I have holes. I am always looking for ways to improve. And I can confidently say that I have an edge on most fields I'm playing in.

So if that's not it, what is it? Am I being impatient? It's possible. Maybe the volume needed to succeed in online tournament poker is more than I'm able to put in based on my desire to achieve "short-term" results. I mean everyone talks about the swings and when you are only putting in 70-100 tournaments a month versus large field sizes maybe it's simply going to take longer. I mean with even skill level and a payout of the top 15% of a 1,000 person tournament, you are only going to cash ON AVERAGE of 15% of the time. So when you do cash in a 1,000 person tournament, that means you are top 150. The real money is at the final table, so you then have to be top 9, which is less than 1% of the total field (.9%). So...if you final table .9% of the time, out of 1000 tries that is only 9 final tables.

Okay, I just looked at how many tournaments I've played in the last 4 months and not including the backed games, I've played 223. If you just look at the turbos, I played 115. So we're only talking 108 tournaments, of which many of them have more than 1,000 entries. Even if I were running even, I would have only made less than 1 final table.

So I guess I answered my earlier question and it continues to be a question of volume. Time in terms of months is irrelevant if you are playing tournaments with large field sizes. If I was playing the same amount of tournaments with smaller field sizes, I would cash and final table more. Or if I put in more volume in the same period of months, I should statistically final table more. Time only prolongs feelings of running good, bad or even. Time, then only stretches and skews reality and can play tricks on your mind.

So the trick then is to control your perception of reality by either:

A. Reducing actual variance
B. Improving your ability to keep perspective on what your real skill level is and how much variance there is in tournament poker
C. Play more volume

In order to reduce variance, you have to understand what factors influence it and risk in general. Here are a few:

1. Field size
2. Blind structure/time (the faster the blinds, the less time for skill to prevail and the thinner the edges you have to take)
3. Volume of play
4. Information to make decisions (live play arguably provides more info, better blind structure means more time with the same people which means more information, which reduces guessing, which reduces variance).
5. Decisions to take small edges

Higher risk/variance (but in some cases a higher reward):

• Take small edges
• Larger field size
• Turbo structures (which force taking smaller edges)
• Low volume of play
• Low information on opponents
• Play higher % of bankroll

Lower risk/variance (but in some cases a lower reward):

• Take larger edges (less gambling, more confidence in decision)
• Small field sizes
• Slower structures/Deeper stacks
• High volume of play
• High information on opponents (playing with similar players over time, more predictable play, high confidence in reads)
• Play small % of bankroll

Another factor to consider is also the quality of other players:

• Good players = more risk & lower ROI in both short & long run. Too offset this risk, you may need to gamble more since you won't have a skill edge and need to take small edges
• Bad players = less risk & high ROI over long run BUT can be lower ROI in short-run. This means you can pass up some small edges since there are more edges to take and can find higher EV spots. If you have a mix of good and bad players in a game, you can forgoe a small edge vs. a good player since there will be larger edges against the bad players.

Basically, the faster the blind structure and the larger the field sizes, the more volume you have to put in to succeed over the same period of time. Because of the increased variance of fast &/or large field sizes, this also means larger swings up and down. Arguably there is more potential payout in larger fields so IF you can put in the volume you can make more here in terms of ROI. If you can't put in the volume, you are handicapped in the short-run unless you hit a good patch of variance.

So...if you cannot put in a lot of volume and are going to play tournaments, you are better off playing against smaller field sizes with better blind structures if you want more success in terms of winning or making final tables. This doesn't necessarily mean you will make more money but you will make money more consistently.

So what is the magic formula? If you can only put in X volume and want to make X dollars, what field size, blind structure and buy-in should you play?

Well, the answer to this question finally brings us back to the whole point of this blog post. It depends on why you play poker?

Since it has taken me a few weeks to complete this post, some things have changed that affect my answer to this question. We decided to move some investment money around to pay off the debt. This has basically eliminated the burden that has been looming for the last couple of years and has taken the pressure off of me to make a big score. It's hard to know how much this pressure affected my game, but it certainly didn't help. I feel like there will be a new freedom to play for the joy of the game and not the hope of a big cash that would remove stress in my life. Had you asked me two weeks ago why I play, it would probably be some combination of fun hobby and to eliminate debt (with about 75% weighted toward debt relief).

But now...I not only don't have to play for income, I have increased perspective on variance. As I was trying to mathematically determine what games I should play based on my limited volume (limited in comparrison to an MTT pro), I also read a great blog series that did some of the work for me (http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/mtt-pros/). Without repeating this post, it re-inforced just how much variance affects the game. Even the highest skilled players can be losing players even over a 1,000 and 5,000 tournament sample size in large field MTTs.

So to break it down simply, here's why I play:

I enjoy the competition. Which means I enjoy out playing my opponents and I like winning. I want to be the best and I want re-inforcement that I am from my results. I enjoy cash games, but I prefer tournaments because I also like the feeling of beating the field and taking home the top prize. I also like the strategic decisions required based on multiple factors. While cash games present several more meta-game factors and multi-street decisions, the thrill of beating the field out weighs those cerebral pleasures.

So I'm back to where I was 5 years ago...just with more experience and a matured perspective.

Now what?

Now I need to decide where I will focus my time and energy. I still prefer tournaments, but I should mix in more cash games. Also now that wrestling season is over, I can play more and get to more live games as well. Based on why I play the game and the volume I can put in, I really need to focus on tournaments with smaller fields and deeper stacks. This will allow me to feel like I'm actually playing poker and enjoy playing more. The turbos are okay, but it's not as fun to push and pray. It's actually kind of stressful being subject to the poker gods. When you factor in the thrill of the payouts and where I've seen success in the past, I think my sweet spot is mid-stakes rebuy tournaments. This doesn't mean its all I will play, but I should seek these out (and possibly expand to playing on other sites). By focusing on smaller fields, I will final table and win more often (both in frequency and over the course of time) which will re-inforce my feeling of success. This will increase my confidence and reduce stress while playing.

From the above list of risk/variance & reward factors, here is what I chose to primarily focus on:

• Take most + EV edges - I will still strive to make profitable long-term decisions as I am still playing MTTs. However these decisions may be adjusted slightly depending on the tournament structure.
• Play a comfortable % of bankroll - I'll still follow most bankroll management rules as I'm not in a position to replinish fully. But I may have to bend the rules a bit for local live tournaments.
• Low number of entrants (in relation to large field MTTs)
• Slower structures/Deeper stacks
• High volume of play (as much as I can)
• High information on opponents

Based on this, here are the types of games I'll be focusing on (non-backed games) :

• Smaller field rebuys ($10 1r+1a, $20r and $30r when my roll increases)
• Non-guaranteed prize pools - These are less likely to have massive fields
• Deeper stacked guaranteed games - If the field is larger, I want more chips
• Poker Stars Home Games - I'm gonna try and increase the number of players in the league to up the prize pools and use reads to my advantage.
• Local live tournaments (I'll likely mix in a weekly Thursday game or monthly "Big Show").
• Local cash games

This isn't to say that I won't play any turbos, but I will certainly play less of them. Wrestling season is over so I'll have more time to play but if I get an itch and I only have a few hours, I may still fire up a 45, 90 or 180 man.

So that's the plan. I've got to say I'm pretty pumped about going through this exercise. It's really helped me clear my head and know where to focus my energy. I'm excited about the rest of this year and can't wait to play again.