Just an interesting observation from a hand the other night. When making decisions during a hand, our brain often tricks us into thinking about situations based on what we "want" the outcome to be in order to justify a play. We want to "win" every pot, but sometimes winning means folding.
You have to remind yourself that decisions are about long-term expected value and not "maybe this time he has X" or "there's a chance he has X". If you ever trick yourself into thinking this way, you have to remember that "maybe" and "there's a chance" probably equate to about 5-10% of their range MAX. Maybe this time he has AK and my pair is good; maybe this time he's bluffing...well, what is the other 90-95% of his range include? How confident are you in your read that they hold the hands that you think they "might" have? If your read is that they are a super aggro spewtard then your decision isn't based on "maybe this time" it's "he's bluffing here a large % of the time...at least 50%". If you have no reads, then "might", "there's a chance" and "maybe this time" aren't enough to justify a decision.
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