Why I Play Poker - Revisited

I was reading back through some old blog posts from 5 years ago and realized...wait!...that was 5 years ago. Time has really flown by and according to those posts I've been playing almost 7 years now. That is really crazy to think about.

Back then I had an "a ha moment" and decided that the reason I play was for competitiveness and for the fun of playing. I talked about how money was a nice by product but really it was a means of keeping score. I still do feel this way for the most part, but I have been putting a lot more pressure on myself lately to use the money I win playing poker to help pay off debt that has built up as a result of now being a business owner.

Unfortunately over the last few months I haven't turned a profit and while I've mostly kept an even keel attitude about variance, it started to get to me the other day. I haven't had to deposit money since I started playing with only a few site transfers to replenish, the funds in my online accounts are basically at zero. NOW, let me also say that this is me being a tad melodramatic because I have a good bit of my bankroll in cash or in a savings account AND had to buy-in with my own funds for some backed games and I'm owed money. But that isn't a ton and I think the psychological affects of not being able to buy into anything right now started pissing me off.

It's been about 4 months since my roll took a big nose dive due to life bills and a big downswing and while I thought my bruised ego was over it, I think I assumed I would have hit a decent score by now to move the line graph upward. Unfortunately I've only had a few minor ups and downs of my own roll and the makeup of my backing deal continues to grow.

I can't tell if I'm being impatient, if my sample size for expecting some movement is too small, if I'm still in some overall downswing, or maybe certain holes in my game are preventing me from achieving success. I'm really in a state of confusion and at a loss as to what to do. I'm hoping that blogging about it will provide some clarity.

As far as my game goes, I truly feel that I'm making big improvements. I mean yeah, I've had a couple of brain farts that cost me a couple of deep runs, but overall I think I'm playing good. I don't think that my feeling this way is some sort of ego protection mechanism where I can't admit that I have holes. I am always looking for ways to improve. And I can confidently say that I have an edge on most fields I'm playing in.

So if that's not it, what is it? Am I being impatient? It's possible. Maybe the volume needed to succeed in online tournament poker is more than I'm able to put in based on my desire to achieve "short-term" results. I mean everyone talks about the swings and when you are only putting in 70-100 tournaments a month versus large field sizes maybe it's simply going to take longer. I mean with even skill level and a payout of the top 15% of a 1,000 person tournament, you are only going to cash ON AVERAGE of 15% of the time. So when you do cash in a 1,000 person tournament, that means you are top 150. The real money is at the final table, so you then have to be top 9, which is less than 1% of the total field (.9%). So...if you final table .9% of the time, out of 1000 tries that is only 9 final tables.

Okay, I just looked at how many tournaments I've played in the last 4 months and not including the backed games, I've played 223. If you just look at the turbos, I played 115. So we're only talking 108 tournaments, of which many of them have more than 1,000 entries. Even if I were running even, I would have only made less than 1 final table.

So I guess I answered my earlier question and it continues to be a question of volume. Time in terms of months is irrelevant if you are playing tournaments with large field sizes. If I was playing the same amount of tournaments with smaller field sizes, I would cash and final table more. Or if I put in more volume in the same period of months, I should statistically final table more. Time only prolongs feelings of running good, bad or even. Time, then only stretches and skews reality and can play tricks on your mind.

So the trick then is to control your perception of reality by either:

A. Reducing actual variance
B. Improving your ability to keep perspective on what your real skill level is and how much variance there is in tournament poker
C. Play more volume

In order to reduce variance, you have to understand what factors influence it and risk in general. Here are a few:

1. Field size
2. Blind structure/time (the faster the blinds, the less time for skill to prevail and the thinner the edges you have to take)
3. Volume of play
4. Information to make decisions (live play arguably provides more info, better blind structure means more time with the same people which means more information, which reduces guessing, which reduces variance).
5. Decisions to take small edges

Higher risk/variance (but in some cases a higher reward):

• Take small edges
• Larger field size
• Turbo structures (which force taking smaller edges)
• Low volume of play
• Low information on opponents
• Play higher % of bankroll

Lower risk/variance (but in some cases a lower reward):

• Take larger edges (less gambling, more confidence in decision)
• Small field sizes
• Slower structures/Deeper stacks
• High volume of play
• High information on opponents (playing with similar players over time, more predictable play, high confidence in reads)
• Play small % of bankroll

Another factor to consider is also the quality of other players:

• Good players = more risk & lower ROI in both short & long run. Too offset this risk, you may need to gamble more since you won't have a skill edge and need to take small edges
• Bad players = less risk & high ROI over long run BUT can be lower ROI in short-run. This means you can pass up some small edges since there are more edges to take and can find higher EV spots. If you have a mix of good and bad players in a game, you can forgoe a small edge vs. a good player since there will be larger edges against the bad players.

Basically, the faster the blind structure and the larger the field sizes, the more volume you have to put in to succeed over the same period of time. Because of the increased variance of fast &/or large field sizes, this also means larger swings up and down. Arguably there is more potential payout in larger fields so IF you can put in the volume you can make more here in terms of ROI. If you can't put in the volume, you are handicapped in the short-run unless you hit a good patch of variance.

So...if you cannot put in a lot of volume and are going to play tournaments, you are better off playing against smaller field sizes with better blind structures if you want more success in terms of winning or making final tables. This doesn't necessarily mean you will make more money but you will make money more consistently.

So what is the magic formula? If you can only put in X volume and want to make X dollars, what field size, blind structure and buy-in should you play?

Well, the answer to this question finally brings us back to the whole point of this blog post. It depends on why you play poker?

Since it has taken me a few weeks to complete this post, some things have changed that affect my answer to this question. We decided to move some investment money around to pay off the debt. This has basically eliminated the burden that has been looming for the last couple of years and has taken the pressure off of me to make a big score. It's hard to know how much this pressure affected my game, but it certainly didn't help. I feel like there will be a new freedom to play for the joy of the game and not the hope of a big cash that would remove stress in my life. Had you asked me two weeks ago why I play, it would probably be some combination of fun hobby and to eliminate debt (with about 75% weighted toward debt relief).

But now...I not only don't have to play for income, I have increased perspective on variance. As I was trying to mathematically determine what games I should play based on my limited volume (limited in comparrison to an MTT pro), I also read a great blog series that did some of the work for me (http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/mtt-pros/). Without repeating this post, it re-inforced just how much variance affects the game. Even the highest skilled players can be losing players even over a 1,000 and 5,000 tournament sample size in large field MTTs.

So to break it down simply, here's why I play:

I enjoy the competition. Which means I enjoy out playing my opponents and I like winning. I want to be the best and I want re-inforcement that I am from my results. I enjoy cash games, but I prefer tournaments because I also like the feeling of beating the field and taking home the top prize. I also like the strategic decisions required based on multiple factors. While cash games present several more meta-game factors and multi-street decisions, the thrill of beating the field out weighs those cerebral pleasures.

So I'm back to where I was 5 years ago...just with more experience and a matured perspective.

Now what?

Now I need to decide where I will focus my time and energy. I still prefer tournaments, but I should mix in more cash games. Also now that wrestling season is over, I can play more and get to more live games as well. Based on why I play the game and the volume I can put in, I really need to focus on tournaments with smaller fields and deeper stacks. This will allow me to feel like I'm actually playing poker and enjoy playing more. The turbos are okay, but it's not as fun to push and pray. It's actually kind of stressful being subject to the poker gods. When you factor in the thrill of the payouts and where I've seen success in the past, I think my sweet spot is mid-stakes rebuy tournaments. This doesn't mean its all I will play, but I should seek these out (and possibly expand to playing on other sites). By focusing on smaller fields, I will final table and win more often (both in frequency and over the course of time) which will re-inforce my feeling of success. This will increase my confidence and reduce stress while playing.

From the above list of risk/variance & reward factors, here is what I chose to primarily focus on:

• Take most + EV edges - I will still strive to make profitable long-term decisions as I am still playing MTTs. However these decisions may be adjusted slightly depending on the tournament structure.
• Play a comfortable % of bankroll - I'll still follow most bankroll management rules as I'm not in a position to replinish fully. But I may have to bend the rules a bit for local live tournaments.
• Low number of entrants (in relation to large field MTTs)
• Slower structures/Deeper stacks
• High volume of play (as much as I can)
• High information on opponents

Based on this, here are the types of games I'll be focusing on (non-backed games) :

• Smaller field rebuys ($10 1r+1a, $20r and $30r when my roll increases)
• Non-guaranteed prize pools - These are less likely to have massive fields
• Deeper stacked guaranteed games - If the field is larger, I want more chips
• Poker Stars Home Games - I'm gonna try and increase the number of players in the league to up the prize pools and use reads to my advantage.
• Local live tournaments (I'll likely mix in a weekly Thursday game or monthly "Big Show").
• Local cash games

This isn't to say that I won't play any turbos, but I will certainly play less of them. Wrestling season is over so I'll have more time to play but if I get an itch and I only have a few hours, I may still fire up a 45, 90 or 180 man.

So that's the plan. I've got to say I'm pretty pumped about going through this exercise. It's really helped me clear my head and know where to focus my energy. I'm excited about the rest of this year and can't wait to play again.

February so far

I've started of February not playing much at all. I've played 23 tournaments, which if I keep this pace I'm only projected to play 64 this month. Wrestling season, the Super Bowl and feeling exhausted have prevented me from playing the volume that I want so far. I can definitely still make it up, but it's frustrated when you want to play yet you know that you'll play like crap because your too tired.

On a positive side, I set up a home game league on Poker Stars and that has gone really well. The first of 10 events had 30 people and the league is now at 43 members. I took 8th in the first event, but I felt like I played really well. I made some big laydowns early and I trusted my reads on some important 3bet spots and a big squeeze pot where the bb had KQ to my AQ.

Anyway, short entry for today. Just feeling anxious to play and not having enough time to squeeze games in.

January Recap

Here's a recap of January 2011 went.

Goal: 100 tournaments
Actual: 102 tournaments played (taking tonight off)

With my own money (gah! I need my bankroll back...stupid life bills)
Played 77 (43 were turbo multi-table sngs)
$1,620 in buy-ins
$1,413 in cashes
- $207 in profit

Backed:
Played 25
$3,523 in buy-ins
$1,668 in cashes
- $1,855 in profit

Reasons for Success:
1. Opened up my game from early position
2. Played a great post-flop game and chipped up nice during the early stages
3. Got out of the habit of c-betting every single flop. Picked and choose my spots wisely. My cbet % was 61.3 where it's usually around 85 or so.

Things to Work On:
1. Light 3 betting - I definitely did not do this enough. My 3bet % for January was 4.2. I need to actively look for more opportunities to attack 25-35bb stacks and close my eyes so I don't see my cards. By 6 tabling I sometimes miss these spots because it isn't part of my normal game unless I have good reads. I need to make these spots automatic.

2. Fear of making mistakes - For some reason, in backed games I'm hesitant in the close decisions and found myself taking a more passive route in the middle stages. I crushed it early when I could play all three streets, but as blinds got higher I found myself blinding out because I either didn't pull the trigger in certain spots (see #1) OR talked myself out of a shove or 3bet shove because it was close (i.e. A-rag or A-mid vs. late position raise).

3. Hero calls - On boards that were kinda scary or people potted I found myself making more hero calls than normal and being wrong. The pot odds were -EV since they weren't bluffing a high enough %.

4. Light steals - I don't think I need to open up too much, but I could use a few more steals with trashy hands when the situation is right. I ran 15.4 / 11.4 / 4.2. Part of that is because I didn't get too deep or short handed as often as I would like. I'm not going to try and force a certain stat, but if I open up a bit in the right situations I could see myself being closer to like 17/13/7 or 19/14/8.

2011 Poker Goals

So 2010 was a pretty tough year overall. It started off with a Biloxi trip where I bubbled something like 7 out of 9 tournaments and was down probably $2k. I then went through some major ups and downs over 25,000 hands trying my hand at being a cash game player. I expected to have a nice pretty upward graph, instead I barely eeked out a profit. I then busted out of the Main Event with 17 min left to go in Day 1. Upon returning from Vegas, I went through pretty much the worst downswing I have ever had, had a Biloxi trip where I didn't win a single thing, and right in the middle of that I had to use about 1/3 of my bankroll to pay off a major life expense.

Now in between all of that I had some good moments as well. I did really well at local tournaments and I came home about +$2,500 from the World Series. So when you factor everything in, while my bankroll did actually grow to about $11,500 or so I saw it plummet to $2,500 in 5 months. For the most part I played within my bankroll, but when you combine the downswing with the life expense all at the same time it really hit me in the gut.

So where am I now? Well, I was able to put myself in a great opportunity by becoming backed by one of the top up & coming players. He actually used to play at my house a few years back and I initiated a re-connection. My plan wasn't to become backed or anything. I just wanted to pick his brain. But as our conversation evolved, I paid for a few hours of invaluable lessons and the topic of being backed came up. After a few weeks, he asked me if I wanted to do it and after doing research on the pros & cons, I decided it was for me.

So now it's been about a month and I've played a handful of Sunday majors. I haven't had a big cash yet, but I have been able to go deep in a few big tournaments. More importantly, I'm adjusting and improving my game. There have been a few spots that I've been a little unsure of because I'm applying new skills, but for the most part I'm building bigger stacks in tournaments.

I feel like 2011 will be a big year for me.

Here are my goals for the year with associated action items:

1. Get my confidence back and not beat myself up over tough decisions

Actions:
- Review hand histories the next day with fresh perspective and not wait until a week later. I need to incorporate more study time of my own hands which will help me continue to learn and increase my confidence when similar situations come up.
- Review hand histories with my backer
- Pull the trigger more when getting deep in a tournament. If I'm wrong, then I can review the hand with my backer to adjust for next time. I'm not going to worry about the results of any one tournament.
- Get consistent sleep. Keeping my brain fresh will help me not make emotion based decisions. This will be incorporated into my play schedule (see below) where I am balancing in rest days.

2. Put in 100 tournaments a month (note: while this is easy for many players my limited schedule makes it challenging. After March I may be able to increase this.)

Actions:
- Create monthly play calendar with daily/weekly volume goals
- Get more comfortable making reads playing 6-8 tables consistently

3. Finally win a "real" tournament with over 180 players - Believe it or not, I still haven't done this.

Action: By focusing on #1 and especially #2, this will happen...and likely more than once.

4. Get a 10k cash by June

Action: Just need to make sure that my volume includes tournaments where this is possible. My focus really is on volume and making the right decisions and the results will come.

5. Have profitable quarters in my backing deal - since I'm only playing Sundays and a handful of nightlys I think measuring this every 3 months is good.

Actions:
- Set a reminder for myself to review my quarterly results
- Focus on deep runs and not just cashing, knowing that my backer isn't interested in a bunch of min cashes.

6. My original goal 5 years ago was to win a bracelet by 2011. While based on volume alone it isn't realistic, I still want to make it something I'm shooting for.

Action: In order to play at the WSOP this year I'm going to have to have a great first half of the year and/or be backed to play live events. Even to be backed, I'm gonna have to prove myself so I am going to concentrate the majority of my efforts on volume goals and hand history reviews for the first half of the year.

So overall there are some things I want to accomplish, but most of it will be achieved because I'm focused on a solid play schedule getting both volume in, but also enough sleep to play fresh. I know that volume will help balance out variance and if I'm constantly trying to study specific hands in order to improve, it will help me make better, impartial decisions at the table.

A Fresh Start

I haven't posted in a while, so I'll give a super brief update to give some context to this post. The short story is that I hit one of "those" downswings you hear that other people have and it makes your downswing seem like nothing. Are there worse downswings out there? I am absolutely sure of it. Now for me I am using buy-ins and % of my bankroll as the measuring stick. The dollar value of my downswing is NOTHING in comparison to the majority of serious poker players. But for me, it was still significant. How much was it? About 1/2 my bankroll.

That is phase 1. Phase 2 is a major expense that I have had for a year that we set up as a no payments/no interest for a year. Well I was hoping to build my bankroll enough where I could pay for this and not affect my roll. Unfortunately that didn't happen and now my once $11k+ roll is down to about $2,300.

So that is the past. On to the future.

I have two choices. Dwell on the past and act like "poor me" or make a new start. I chose to approach things with a fresh mind and start a new chapter in my poker career. It won't be easy, but the alternative sucks. In fact, I got some inspiration this morning on my decision. I went to church this morning for some reason (I never go) and the message today was that when life hands you the worst of it, it is those with faith and fortitude who will receive god's support and wisdom (or something like that).

Starting this morning, I am working with a new bankroll. I also know that things happen for a reason and my recent re-connection with someone who I just started a backing agreement with was meant to be. I am one that believes that god will present paths for us to choose and it is ultimately our decisions that dictate the directions we move in.

Moving forward, I am not going to try and catch back up or chase losses. I am not going to make decisions that carry emotional baggage from past results or use my ego or "need to win". I am going to think positive and stay focused on profitable decision making.

WSOP Main Event - Prep Blog

In a few hours I'll be playing in my third WSOP. It's always an exciting time as poker players from all over the world come together to compete. The last two times I came, I played in $2,000 events and had pretty deep runs. I cashed both times and last year I finished 47th out of about 1,700 players.

This year will be my first main event and I'm as ready as ever. I was backed for the event so it certainly takes the bankroll pressure off, but I plan on playing my best regardless. I'm not going to spew chips because it doesn't matter if I bust and I'm also not going to nit it up because I'm playing with someone else's money. They know they are taking a risk and they just want me to play my best.

The Main Event is a super long tournament so it really is just a series of poker decisions just like any other session or tournament. By treating it like a media spectacle and a “big deal” takes away from proper decision making and clouds your judgment. To be mentally prepared n most big sporting events, you should block out the distractions in order to focus on your skills. A poker tournament is no different except that in addition, poker has a variance factor. What this means is that in order to be successful you truly have to treat poker as one big session and not get caught up in the results of one specific tournament, whether it be a small buy-in online tournament or the biggest tournament in the world.

Having said that, there are some adjustments that can be made to optimize my results in a tournament like this. While I will do my best to treat it like any other tournament, other players may not and it's my job to capitalize on that.

So my overall strategy is just like any other tournament. I will identify player tendencies, assign hand ranges and make my decisions accordingly. If I need to be aggro in the beginning to pick up easy chips from passive players then I will. If I need to stay conservative because people are playing like a home cash game because the stacks are so deep, then I'll do that. The key will be understanding the individual players mindsets. For some, there will be interesting meta-game considerations since we'll likely be at the same table for a while in the beginning, but for others who are just playing their cards they don't even know what meta-game means. Some players will nit up when it cost them their stack because they don't want to bust from the main event and some players will gamble it up because they feel they have nothing to lose. I have no idea what my table will bring...it could be filled with internet pros who might be super aggro and it might be filled with live pros who have something to prove (which may cause them to be more or less nitty than normal). I might also have a bunch of guys who won their seat through bar poker freerolls. Who knows. But the main thing is that I'll make my decisions based on observed tendencies. Everyone has leaks and it is my job to exploit them.

So like last year, I jotted down a few statements to help me get in the right mindset and stay focused. Here they are in no particular order:

- I will not get caught up in the fan fare and the emotion of the event
- I'm not going to put a bunch of pressure on myself to make "perfect decisions"
- If I make mistakes I will adapt and move on...there will be lots of poker to play
- I will not let ego affect my play vs. aggro players (esp guys who are trying to look like cool poker players)
- I will not force spots trying to outplay people. I will make reads and make confident decisions.
- I will not try to play like other people. I will stay true to my game.
- They are all poker players with patterns & tendencies. They are just people and I will not play in fear of celebrity or reputation.
- I will play to win. My stack will dictate how I play on the bubble and I will take advantage of bubble dynamics as best as I can.
- I have no need to prove to myself or anyone that I am not afraid to bust out on a big call or shove. If those plays come up they will be based on sound, confident & logical decisions.
- I will not get emotionally attached to a hand
- I will stay patient
- I will not be afraid of the outcome of my decisions (aka I will not be afraid to bust). But at the same time, I will make plays that I am confident in and I will not force spots.
- I will not play any different whether I am at a TV table, a feature table or the final table (other than to take advantage of how others might be playing because of these dynamics)

So I think the theme of all of this is to stay patient and make decisions I am confident in. If I get a bad feeling, I'll just let the hand go and move on to another hand. If I'm confident in the play; whether it be fold, call or raise; I'll make it.

Wish me luck.

Never put anyone on a pedestal

Was sorting some old emails and found something I sent to myself in regards to a lesson to teach wrestlers that I coach. I find it interestingly poignant considering I am about to leave for the World Series.

---------------

Never put anyone else up on a pedestal.

You can respect their skills and learn from them, but when you deify someone it makes them unbeatable in your mind and assumes that you can never reach that level. Levels and limits are placed by your own mind and you must consciously break through the invisible barriers that your mind creates.