So 2010 was a pretty tough year overall. It started off with a Biloxi trip where I bubbled something like 7 out of 9 tournaments and was down probably $2k. I then went through some major ups and downs over 25,000 hands trying my hand at being a cash game player. I expected to have a nice pretty upward graph, instead I barely eeked out a profit. I then busted out of the Main Event with 17 min left to go in Day 1. Upon returning from Vegas, I went through pretty much the worst downswing I have ever had, had a Biloxi trip where I didn't win a single thing, and right in the middle of that I had to use about 1/3 of my bankroll to pay off a major life expense.
Now in between all of that I had some good moments as well. I did really well at local tournaments and I came home about +$2,500 from the World Series. So when you factor everything in, while my bankroll did actually grow to about $11,500 or so I saw it plummet to $2,500 in 5 months. For the most part I played within my bankroll, but when you combine the downswing with the life expense all at the same time it really hit me in the gut.
So where am I now? Well, I was able to put myself in a great opportunity by becoming backed by one of the top up & coming players. He actually used to play at my house a few years back and I initiated a re-connection. My plan wasn't to become backed or anything. I just wanted to pick his brain. But as our conversation evolved, I paid for a few hours of invaluable lessons and the topic of being backed came up. After a few weeks, he asked me if I wanted to do it and after doing research on the pros & cons, I decided it was for me.
So now it's been about a month and I've played a handful of Sunday majors. I haven't had a big cash yet, but I have been able to go deep in a few big tournaments. More importantly, I'm adjusting and improving my game. There have been a few spots that I've been a little unsure of because I'm applying new skills, but for the most part I'm building bigger stacks in tournaments.
I feel like 2011 will be a big year for me.
Here are my goals for the year with associated action items:
1. Get my confidence back and not beat myself up over tough decisions
Actions:
- Review hand histories the next day with fresh perspective and not wait until a week later. I need to incorporate more study time of my own hands which will help me continue to learn and increase my confidence when similar situations come up.
- Review hand histories with my backer
- Pull the trigger more when getting deep in a tournament. If I'm wrong, then I can review the hand with my backer to adjust for next time. I'm not going to worry about the results of any one tournament.
- Get consistent sleep. Keeping my brain fresh will help me not make emotion based decisions. This will be incorporated into my play schedule (see below) where I am balancing in rest days.
2. Put in 100 tournaments a month (note: while this is easy for many players my limited schedule makes it challenging. After March I may be able to increase this.)
Actions:
- Create monthly play calendar with daily/weekly volume goals
- Get more comfortable making reads playing 6-8 tables consistently
3. Finally win a "real" tournament with over 180 players - Believe it or not, I still haven't done this.
Action: By focusing on #1 and especially #2, this will happen...and likely more than once.
4. Get a 10k cash by June
Action: Just need to make sure that my volume includes tournaments where this is possible. My focus really is on volume and making the right decisions and the results will come.
5. Have profitable quarters in my backing deal - since I'm only playing Sundays and a handful of nightlys I think measuring this every 3 months is good.
Actions:
- Set a reminder for myself to review my quarterly results
- Focus on deep runs and not just cashing, knowing that my backer isn't interested in a bunch of min cashes.
6. My original goal 5 years ago was to win a bracelet by 2011. While based on volume alone it isn't realistic, I still want to make it something I'm shooting for.
Action: In order to play at the WSOP this year I'm going to have to have a great first half of the year and/or be backed to play live events. Even to be backed, I'm gonna have to prove myself so I am going to concentrate the majority of my efforts on volume goals and hand history reviews for the first half of the year.
So overall there are some things I want to accomplish, but most of it will be achieved because I'm focused on a solid play schedule getting both volume in, but also enough sleep to play fresh. I know that volume will help balance out variance and if I'm constantly trying to study specific hands in order to improve, it will help me make better, impartial decisions at the table.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
A Fresh Start
I haven't posted in a while, so I'll give a super brief update to give some context to this post. The short story is that I hit one of "those" downswings you hear that other people have and it makes your downswing seem like nothing. Are there worse downswings out there? I am absolutely sure of it. Now for me I am using buy-ins and % of my bankroll as the measuring stick. The dollar value of my downswing is NOTHING in comparison to the majority of serious poker players. But for me, it was still significant. How much was it? About 1/2 my bankroll.
That is phase 1. Phase 2 is a major expense that I have had for a year that we set up as a no payments/no interest for a year. Well I was hoping to build my bankroll enough where I could pay for this and not affect my roll. Unfortunately that didn't happen and now my once $11k+ roll is down to about $2,300.
So that is the past. On to the future.
I have two choices. Dwell on the past and act like "poor me" or make a new start. I chose to approach things with a fresh mind and start a new chapter in my poker career. It won't be easy, but the alternative sucks. In fact, I got some inspiration this morning on my decision. I went to church this morning for some reason (I never go) and the message today was that when life hands you the worst of it, it is those with faith and fortitude who will receive god's support and wisdom (or something like that).
Starting this morning, I am working with a new bankroll. I also know that things happen for a reason and my recent re-connection with someone who I just started a backing agreement with was meant to be. I am one that believes that god will present paths for us to choose and it is ultimately our decisions that dictate the directions we move in.
Moving forward, I am not going to try and catch back up or chase losses. I am not going to make decisions that carry emotional baggage from past results or use my ego or "need to win". I am going to think positive and stay focused on profitable decision making.
That is phase 1. Phase 2 is a major expense that I have had for a year that we set up as a no payments/no interest for a year. Well I was hoping to build my bankroll enough where I could pay for this and not affect my roll. Unfortunately that didn't happen and now my once $11k+ roll is down to about $2,300.
So that is the past. On to the future.
I have two choices. Dwell on the past and act like "poor me" or make a new start. I chose to approach things with a fresh mind and start a new chapter in my poker career. It won't be easy, but the alternative sucks. In fact, I got some inspiration this morning on my decision. I went to church this morning for some reason (I never go) and the message today was that when life hands you the worst of it, it is those with faith and fortitude who will receive god's support and wisdom (or something like that).
Starting this morning, I am working with a new bankroll. I also know that things happen for a reason and my recent re-connection with someone who I just started a backing agreement with was meant to be. I am one that believes that god will present paths for us to choose and it is ultimately our decisions that dictate the directions we move in.
Moving forward, I am not going to try and catch back up or chase losses. I am not going to make decisions that carry emotional baggage from past results or use my ego or "need to win". I am going to think positive and stay focused on profitable decision making.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
WSOP Main Event - Prep Blog
In a few hours I'll be playing in my third WSOP. It's always an exciting time as poker players from all over the world come together to compete. The last two times I came, I played in $2,000 events and had pretty deep runs. I cashed both times and last year I finished 47th out of about 1,700 players.
This year will be my first main event and I'm as ready as ever. I was backed for the event so it certainly takes the bankroll pressure off, but I plan on playing my best regardless. I'm not going to spew chips because it doesn't matter if I bust and I'm also not going to nit it up because I'm playing with someone else's money. They know they are taking a risk and they just want me to play my best.
The Main Event is a super long tournament so it really is just a series of poker decisions just like any other session or tournament. By treating it like a media spectacle and a “big deal” takes away from proper decision making and clouds your judgment. To be mentally prepared n most big sporting events, you should block out the distractions in order to focus on your skills. A poker tournament is no different except that in addition, poker has a variance factor. What this means is that in order to be successful you truly have to treat poker as one big session and not get caught up in the results of one specific tournament, whether it be a small buy-in online tournament or the biggest tournament in the world.
Having said that, there are some adjustments that can be made to optimize my results in a tournament like this. While I will do my best to treat it like any other tournament, other players may not and it's my job to capitalize on that.
So my overall strategy is just like any other tournament. I will identify player tendencies, assign hand ranges and make my decisions accordingly. If I need to be aggro in the beginning to pick up easy chips from passive players then I will. If I need to stay conservative because people are playing like a home cash game because the stacks are so deep, then I'll do that. The key will be understanding the individual players mindsets. For some, there will be interesting meta-game considerations since we'll likely be at the same table for a while in the beginning, but for others who are just playing their cards they don't even know what meta-game means. Some players will nit up when it cost them their stack because they don't want to bust from the main event and some players will gamble it up because they feel they have nothing to lose. I have no idea what my table will bring...it could be filled with internet pros who might be super aggro and it might be filled with live pros who have something to prove (which may cause them to be more or less nitty than normal). I might also have a bunch of guys who won their seat through bar poker freerolls. Who knows. But the main thing is that I'll make my decisions based on observed tendencies. Everyone has leaks and it is my job to exploit them.
So like last year, I jotted down a few statements to help me get in the right mindset and stay focused. Here they are in no particular order:
- I will not get caught up in the fan fare and the emotion of the event
- I'm not going to put a bunch of pressure on myself to make "perfect decisions"
- If I make mistakes I will adapt and move on...there will be lots of poker to play
- I will not let ego affect my play vs. aggro players (esp guys who are trying to look like cool poker players)
- I will not force spots trying to outplay people. I will make reads and make confident decisions.
- I will not try to play like other people. I will stay true to my game.
- They are all poker players with patterns & tendencies. They are just people and I will not play in fear of celebrity or reputation.
- I will play to win. My stack will dictate how I play on the bubble and I will take advantage of bubble dynamics as best as I can.
- I have no need to prove to myself or anyone that I am not afraid to bust out on a big call or shove. If those plays come up they will be based on sound, confident & logical decisions.
- I will not get emotionally attached to a hand
- I will stay patient
- I will not be afraid of the outcome of my decisions (aka I will not be afraid to bust). But at the same time, I will make plays that I am confident in and I will not force spots.
- I will not play any different whether I am at a TV table, a feature table or the final table (other than to take advantage of how others might be playing because of these dynamics)
So I think the theme of all of this is to stay patient and make decisions I am confident in. If I get a bad feeling, I'll just let the hand go and move on to another hand. If I'm confident in the play; whether it be fold, call or raise; I'll make it.
Wish me luck.
This year will be my first main event and I'm as ready as ever. I was backed for the event so it certainly takes the bankroll pressure off, but I plan on playing my best regardless. I'm not going to spew chips because it doesn't matter if I bust and I'm also not going to nit it up because I'm playing with someone else's money. They know they are taking a risk and they just want me to play my best.
The Main Event is a super long tournament so it really is just a series of poker decisions just like any other session or tournament. By treating it like a media spectacle and a “big deal” takes away from proper decision making and clouds your judgment. To be mentally prepared n most big sporting events, you should block out the distractions in order to focus on your skills. A poker tournament is no different except that in addition, poker has a variance factor. What this means is that in order to be successful you truly have to treat poker as one big session and not get caught up in the results of one specific tournament, whether it be a small buy-in online tournament or the biggest tournament in the world.
Having said that, there are some adjustments that can be made to optimize my results in a tournament like this. While I will do my best to treat it like any other tournament, other players may not and it's my job to capitalize on that.
So my overall strategy is just like any other tournament. I will identify player tendencies, assign hand ranges and make my decisions accordingly. If I need to be aggro in the beginning to pick up easy chips from passive players then I will. If I need to stay conservative because people are playing like a home cash game because the stacks are so deep, then I'll do that. The key will be understanding the individual players mindsets. For some, there will be interesting meta-game considerations since we'll likely be at the same table for a while in the beginning, but for others who are just playing their cards they don't even know what meta-game means. Some players will nit up when it cost them their stack because they don't want to bust from the main event and some players will gamble it up because they feel they have nothing to lose. I have no idea what my table will bring...it could be filled with internet pros who might be super aggro and it might be filled with live pros who have something to prove (which may cause them to be more or less nitty than normal). I might also have a bunch of guys who won their seat through bar poker freerolls. Who knows. But the main thing is that I'll make my decisions based on observed tendencies. Everyone has leaks and it is my job to exploit them.
So like last year, I jotted down a few statements to help me get in the right mindset and stay focused. Here they are in no particular order:
- I will not get caught up in the fan fare and the emotion of the event
- I'm not going to put a bunch of pressure on myself to make "perfect decisions"
- If I make mistakes I will adapt and move on...there will be lots of poker to play
- I will not let ego affect my play vs. aggro players (esp guys who are trying to look like cool poker players)
- I will not force spots trying to outplay people. I will make reads and make confident decisions.
- I will not try to play like other people. I will stay true to my game.
- They are all poker players with patterns & tendencies. They are just people and I will not play in fear of celebrity or reputation.
- I will play to win. My stack will dictate how I play on the bubble and I will take advantage of bubble dynamics as best as I can.
- I have no need to prove to myself or anyone that I am not afraid to bust out on a big call or shove. If those plays come up they will be based on sound, confident & logical decisions.
- I will not get emotionally attached to a hand
- I will stay patient
- I will not be afraid of the outcome of my decisions (aka I will not be afraid to bust). But at the same time, I will make plays that I am confident in and I will not force spots.
- I will not play any different whether I am at a TV table, a feature table or the final table (other than to take advantage of how others might be playing because of these dynamics)
So I think the theme of all of this is to stay patient and make decisions I am confident in. If I get a bad feeling, I'll just let the hand go and move on to another hand. If I'm confident in the play; whether it be fold, call or raise; I'll make it.
Wish me luck.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Never put anyone on a pedestal
Was sorting some old emails and found something I sent to myself in regards to a lesson to teach wrestlers that I coach. I find it interestingly poignant considering I am about to leave for the World Series.
---------------
Never put anyone else up on a pedestal.
You can respect their skills and learn from them, but when you deify someone it makes them unbeatable in your mind and assumes that you can never reach that level. Levels and limits are placed by your own mind and you must consciously break through the invisible barriers that your mind creates.
---------------
Never put anyone else up on a pedestal.
You can respect their skills and learn from them, but when you deify someone it makes them unbeatable in your mind and assumes that you can never reach that level. Levels and limits are placed by your own mind and you must consciously break through the invisible barriers that your mind creates.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
The Voice in Your Head
I feel like I use this blog more for a way to vent after making mistakes than anything else. I certainly don't brag on myself enough, but that's okay. (For the record, I have been playing great lately and have been cashing & getting deep in tournaments consistently over the last month or so.) I'm a perfectionist by nature, so while I feel great after making good decisions, in the back of my head I kind of expect it. And when I make a mistake, I tend to dwell on it.
Now, let me say I have made MASSIVE strides as years have gone by regarding this. I used to beat myself up over making little mistakes and it used to cripple my performance in sports. I would over think things, causing me to freeze up and as a result I used to punch lockers after I would lose. That was high school. Of course I'm an adult now and have matured quite a bit since then, but there is still a voice in the back of my head that is always critiquing me.
Playing poker over the last 6 years has helped me calm this voice, but it is always there. I started out playing like a nit, always seeing monsters under the bed and nitting it up because I was afraid of making a mistake. After a few years, I swung the pendulum the other way making elaborate bluffs and hero calls just to prove to myself that I wasn't afraid. Over the last year or so, I've controlled the pendulum and I feel have struck a good balance between being nitty and spewy. I have placed a high emphasis and recognizing hand ranges, removing emotions and making the most +EV decisions.
Every once in a while, however, that constant ongoing voice escapes from it's cell and starts whispering in my ear. What it mostly tells me is "stop playing like a nit and start stealing with trash more" or "if you want to win more tournaments you have to get more aggressive 'like those top internet players'". While this voice is sometimes right, it's extremely one sided. It's only a voice because it represents the opposite of my old nitty tendencies when I first got started playing poker. The reality is that my game is based on so many other factors including the other players, stack sizes, my image, etc. Good poker doesn't mean being spewy aggro all the time. Trust me, I open up my game when it makes sense and while there might be spots that I might pass up, I have been doing a really good job lately at pulling the trigger when my gut says to. But I guess for some reason, I still have something to prove to myself and the voice came back on Sunday.
To give a quick synopsis, I was playing great and made a comeback to be one of the chip leaders. I had built up my stack and then started running into situations where when I opened up my game, I got tons of action and I had to fold. I was down to 9bb and was able to build it back up to almost 40bb (which for this tournament's structure is great).
Now there is 12 left, we are 6 handed and I have about $140K at 4k/8k + 1k. Average stack is $80K. I raise with JTos to 21K and the BB who recently got moved to the table, who I have NO reads on asks how much it is, thinks about folding, then calls. BB has $106K.
Flop is QT9 with 2 diamonds (I have no diamonds). $52K in the pot and he leads into me for $30K leaving himself $55K behind. Without really thinking about what he has (although I assume some sort of Q), I jam. Now that I'm thinking about it after the fact and realizing stack sizes and thinking about WHAT HAND DOES HE HAVE, I have to fold this. I can't just say "he probably has a Q and I have outs). The reality is that he has a Q that either crushes me or has my outs. Q9, QT, QJ, KQ all suck for me. I have zero fold equity and at BEST I have 9 outs. I can easily fold this hand and still have a good stack, yet I freaked and said "OMG I have a pair and a draw, I can't fold at this stage of the tournament".
So the voice made me not think through the hand and I forced a play that didn't make sense because "I'm supposed to be aggressive now." Where emotion clouded my thinking started when he defended his bb. Instead of putting him on a range, I just got pissed a little because I just wanted to steal the blinds and I had been playing tight, slowly losing my big stack because of antes. This was the first time I opened up a bit and of course now I get called. I took it personally I guess because I must have felt the poker gods were punishing me for being aggressive. (lol @ poker gods...no such thing...it's all uncontrollable variance and the human mind's desire to find patterns in things where there are no patterns...but that's another topic.) Now when he leads into me, I get even more pissed because I'm stuck in a tough spot and I guess I felt offended that he led into me. Another lol, because while I had no reads I know this guy only plays his cards so he is telling me face up that he has a good hand and that I have no fold equity. So if he is betting HIS hand, his bet is not a personal attack...and it's NOT a personal attack from the "poker gods".
Anyway, it's strange that after playing 7 hours of great poker that this crept up. I think because we were at the final table and essentially the money bubble, I was putting pressure on myself to be "like those aggro top internet players". This pressure led to emotions and the emotions led to the spew. The reality is that the best players hand read and make situational decisions. Sometimes aggression makes sense and sometimes you have to make great laydowns. Sometimes it makes sense to be super aggro on the bubble and sometimes you have to pick your spots carefully. Also, it's pretty silly and -EV to compare myself to anyone or make plays that I think others would make. Every single situation is different and has different factors that influence them. My hand is going to be different than other hands and as long as I am confident in my decision that's all that matters.
So moving forward I am going to stay confident in my game and when I feel like emotion or pressure I'm putting on myself or "the voice" is getting louder, I will take a step back and take time to think through the situation logically and make the play that is correct for that specific situation.
Now, let me say I have made MASSIVE strides as years have gone by regarding this. I used to beat myself up over making little mistakes and it used to cripple my performance in sports. I would over think things, causing me to freeze up and as a result I used to punch lockers after I would lose. That was high school. Of course I'm an adult now and have matured quite a bit since then, but there is still a voice in the back of my head that is always critiquing me.
Playing poker over the last 6 years has helped me calm this voice, but it is always there. I started out playing like a nit, always seeing monsters under the bed and nitting it up because I was afraid of making a mistake. After a few years, I swung the pendulum the other way making elaborate bluffs and hero calls just to prove to myself that I wasn't afraid. Over the last year or so, I've controlled the pendulum and I feel have struck a good balance between being nitty and spewy. I have placed a high emphasis and recognizing hand ranges, removing emotions and making the most +EV decisions.
Every once in a while, however, that constant ongoing voice escapes from it's cell and starts whispering in my ear. What it mostly tells me is "stop playing like a nit and start stealing with trash more" or "if you want to win more tournaments you have to get more aggressive 'like those top internet players'". While this voice is sometimes right, it's extremely one sided. It's only a voice because it represents the opposite of my old nitty tendencies when I first got started playing poker. The reality is that my game is based on so many other factors including the other players, stack sizes, my image, etc. Good poker doesn't mean being spewy aggro all the time. Trust me, I open up my game when it makes sense and while there might be spots that I might pass up, I have been doing a really good job lately at pulling the trigger when my gut says to. But I guess for some reason, I still have something to prove to myself and the voice came back on Sunday.
To give a quick synopsis, I was playing great and made a comeback to be one of the chip leaders. I had built up my stack and then started running into situations where when I opened up my game, I got tons of action and I had to fold. I was down to 9bb and was able to build it back up to almost 40bb (which for this tournament's structure is great).
Now there is 12 left, we are 6 handed and I have about $140K at 4k/8k + 1k. Average stack is $80K. I raise with JTos to 21K and the BB who recently got moved to the table, who I have NO reads on asks how much it is, thinks about folding, then calls. BB has $106K.
Flop is QT9 with 2 diamonds (I have no diamonds). $52K in the pot and he leads into me for $30K leaving himself $55K behind. Without really thinking about what he has (although I assume some sort of Q), I jam. Now that I'm thinking about it after the fact and realizing stack sizes and thinking about WHAT HAND DOES HE HAVE, I have to fold this. I can't just say "he probably has a Q and I have outs). The reality is that he has a Q that either crushes me or has my outs. Q9, QT, QJ, KQ all suck for me. I have zero fold equity and at BEST I have 9 outs. I can easily fold this hand and still have a good stack, yet I freaked and said "OMG I have a pair and a draw, I can't fold at this stage of the tournament".
So the voice made me not think through the hand and I forced a play that didn't make sense because "I'm supposed to be aggressive now." Where emotion clouded my thinking started when he defended his bb. Instead of putting him on a range, I just got pissed a little because I just wanted to steal the blinds and I had been playing tight, slowly losing my big stack because of antes. This was the first time I opened up a bit and of course now I get called. I took it personally I guess because I must have felt the poker gods were punishing me for being aggressive. (lol @ poker gods...no such thing...it's all uncontrollable variance and the human mind's desire to find patterns in things where there are no patterns...but that's another topic.) Now when he leads into me, I get even more pissed because I'm stuck in a tough spot and I guess I felt offended that he led into me. Another lol, because while I had no reads I know this guy only plays his cards so he is telling me face up that he has a good hand and that I have no fold equity. So if he is betting HIS hand, his bet is not a personal attack...and it's NOT a personal attack from the "poker gods".
Anyway, it's strange that after playing 7 hours of great poker that this crept up. I think because we were at the final table and essentially the money bubble, I was putting pressure on myself to be "like those aggro top internet players". This pressure led to emotions and the emotions led to the spew. The reality is that the best players hand read and make situational decisions. Sometimes aggression makes sense and sometimes you have to make great laydowns. Sometimes it makes sense to be super aggro on the bubble and sometimes you have to pick your spots carefully. Also, it's pretty silly and -EV to compare myself to anyone or make plays that I think others would make. Every single situation is different and has different factors that influence them. My hand is going to be different than other hands and as long as I am confident in my decision that's all that matters.
So moving forward I am going to stay confident in my game and when I feel like emotion or pressure I'm putting on myself or "the voice" is getting louder, I will take a step back and take time to think through the situation logically and make the play that is correct for that specific situation.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Blinded by the flop
Had an interesting situation occur tonight at a live tournament. I say it's interesting because of how it affected my thinking.
Now let me safe face a bit here by saying that since I switched back to tournaments in preparation for the WSOP, I've been playing really well. I've had deep runs and a few final tables online over the last couple of weeks. Having said that, I made a bad call in a big pot tonight and it was due to two reasons:
1. I had lost a big pot early (but with right reads and the right play - he just happened to catch 2pr on the river). I was cool, and then I won a big pot and then got KK the very next hand. I was facing a raise and when I 3bet it, a guy in the blinds called and so did the original raiser. So now I'm in a big pot again and I guess my emotions got high, hoping I would win a big pot and scared of getting sucked out on. BLEH...what's with the "hoping" and emotion based thinking?
2. I was blinded by a monotone flop - The flop comes T7J all diamonds and I have no diamond. It checks to me and I bet 1525 into 2100. The bb folds and the other player calls saying "well I have to call because of the 25". At this point, my range narrowed squarely on him having a J or a diamond. All I saw was the flush/flush draw and a "coordinated board", but at this point I got so caught up in being scared of losing the pot that all I could think about was the diamonds. I failed to start calling out in my mind all the specific hand combinations he could have. The turn is the 9s. He checks and I tank. For some reason he seems a little relaxed and talkative to the others around him and I pick up on it, but I don't really study him. Not that live tells are the nuts, but it can be a factor in a hand like this. After thinking for a while, I check behind. He had less than a pot sized bet left (3,800) and I weighed the pros and cons of giving a diamond draw a free card. Could he have an 8? Maybe, but I would think he bets the turn with a low straight. There are also random 2 pair combos that are pot controlling. But I still kept thinking about all those diamonds. The river was a blank 3 and he insta-shoved. I deliberated for a bit, but kept thinking he missed his draw. I didn't even consider that he could have a straight or even possibly flopped a flush. I mean I was worried about straight type hands, but I never put him on specific hand ranges. Alas, I called and he showed KQ with the Kd. Once he got there he played it well and it all makes sense. He checked and looked comfortable because he was only worried about me having the Ad. He had the nuts with a nuttish re-draw. Could he have had a missed draw? Maybe some % of the time, but probably not the 30% or so I needed. This was also the second orbit at the table and I have no reads on how this guy plays. And I didn't really even look at pot odds and the likelyhood of being ahead or behind. Had I come to an unemotional and logical conclusion, I would be fine. But I narrowed his range to a missed draw and couldn't let go of it.
3. Another possible reason I made the call was because of an energy drink I had. Huh? An energy drink? Yes. Usually if I have one it helps me stay focused, but sometimes it jacks up my heart rate and makes me feel a little anxious. Throughout this hand, I never felt emotionally detached so I could make logical decisions. When I'm emotionally detached, my breathing slows, my muscles relax and my heart rate drops. In this case, my heart rate had been elevated from the previous big hand but I wasn't able to bring it down. I'm not saying this was an excuse for making the call, but it did have an effect.
Anyway, I'm over it now. Just played a couple of 45 and 90 man tournaments on Tilt and took 2nd in one of them. I brushed it off and moved on.
Now let me safe face a bit here by saying that since I switched back to tournaments in preparation for the WSOP, I've been playing really well. I've had deep runs and a few final tables online over the last couple of weeks. Having said that, I made a bad call in a big pot tonight and it was due to two reasons:
1. I had lost a big pot early (but with right reads and the right play - he just happened to catch 2pr on the river). I was cool, and then I won a big pot and then got KK the very next hand. I was facing a raise and when I 3bet it, a guy in the blinds called and so did the original raiser. So now I'm in a big pot again and I guess my emotions got high, hoping I would win a big pot and scared of getting sucked out on. BLEH...what's with the "hoping" and emotion based thinking?
2. I was blinded by a monotone flop - The flop comes T7J all diamonds and I have no diamond. It checks to me and I bet 1525 into 2100. The bb folds and the other player calls saying "well I have to call because of the 25". At this point, my range narrowed squarely on him having a J or a diamond. All I saw was the flush/flush draw and a "coordinated board", but at this point I got so caught up in being scared of losing the pot that all I could think about was the diamonds. I failed to start calling out in my mind all the specific hand combinations he could have. The turn is the 9s. He checks and I tank. For some reason he seems a little relaxed and talkative to the others around him and I pick up on it, but I don't really study him. Not that live tells are the nuts, but it can be a factor in a hand like this. After thinking for a while, I check behind. He had less than a pot sized bet left (3,800) and I weighed the pros and cons of giving a diamond draw a free card. Could he have an 8? Maybe, but I would think he bets the turn with a low straight. There are also random 2 pair combos that are pot controlling. But I still kept thinking about all those diamonds. The river was a blank 3 and he insta-shoved. I deliberated for a bit, but kept thinking he missed his draw. I didn't even consider that he could have a straight or even possibly flopped a flush. I mean I was worried about straight type hands, but I never put him on specific hand ranges. Alas, I called and he showed KQ with the Kd. Once he got there he played it well and it all makes sense. He checked and looked comfortable because he was only worried about me having the Ad. He had the nuts with a nuttish re-draw. Could he have had a missed draw? Maybe some % of the time, but probably not the 30% or so I needed. This was also the second orbit at the table and I have no reads on how this guy plays. And I didn't really even look at pot odds and the likelyhood of being ahead or behind. Had I come to an unemotional and logical conclusion, I would be fine. But I narrowed his range to a missed draw and couldn't let go of it.
3. Another possible reason I made the call was because of an energy drink I had. Huh? An energy drink? Yes. Usually if I have one it helps me stay focused, but sometimes it jacks up my heart rate and makes me feel a little anxious. Throughout this hand, I never felt emotionally detached so I could make logical decisions. When I'm emotionally detached, my breathing slows, my muscles relax and my heart rate drops. In this case, my heart rate had been elevated from the previous big hand but I wasn't able to bring it down. I'm not saying this was an excuse for making the call, but it did have an effect.
Anyway, I'm over it now. Just played a couple of 45 and 90 man tournaments on Tilt and took 2nd in one of them. I brushed it off and moved on.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Maybe This Time...
Just an interesting observation from a hand the other night. When making decisions during a hand, our brain often tricks us into thinking about situations based on what we "want" the outcome to be in order to justify a play. We want to "win" every pot, but sometimes winning means folding.
You have to remind yourself that decisions are about long-term expected value and not "maybe this time he has X" or "there's a chance he has X". If you ever trick yourself into thinking this way, you have to remember that "maybe" and "there's a chance" probably equate to about 5-10% of their range MAX. Maybe this time he has AK and my pair is good; maybe this time he's bluffing...well, what is the other 90-95% of his range include? How confident are you in your read that they hold the hands that you think they "might" have? If your read is that they are a super aggro spewtard then your decision isn't based on "maybe this time" it's "he's bluffing here a large % of the time...at least 50%". If you have no reads, then "might", "there's a chance" and "maybe this time" aren't enough to justify a decision.
You have to remind yourself that decisions are about long-term expected value and not "maybe this time he has X" or "there's a chance he has X". If you ever trick yourself into thinking this way, you have to remember that "maybe" and "there's a chance" probably equate to about 5-10% of their range MAX. Maybe this time he has AK and my pair is good; maybe this time he's bluffing...well, what is the other 90-95% of his range include? How confident are you in your read that they hold the hands that you think they "might" have? If your read is that they are a super aggro spewtard then your decision isn't based on "maybe this time" it's "he's bluffing here a large % of the time...at least 50%". If you have no reads, then "might", "there's a chance" and "maybe this time" aren't enough to justify a decision.
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